Vs 2018 Event - Collectors (Math)

Learn more: VS 2018 Event
Power lies wherever war lives. But only one can claim it. Determine who will reign during VS 2018, which runs from June 27, 2018 at 4:00 pm CET to July 11, 2018 at 7:59 am CET God-King Garen June 27 2018 at 4:00 pm CET God-King Darius Available June 27 2018 at 4:00 pm CET - 250 RP each | Icons See VS Bundles for bundle-exclusive icons Lion Banner Icon Wolf Banner Icon The Lion Ward The Wolf Ward Such War Emote Please?
Hello everyone! This is my 3rd discussion on the topic. Be sure to check the others out: [Vs 2018 Event - Hextech Crafting (Math)](https://boards.euw.leagueoflegends.com/en/c/champions-gameplay-en/qijJbK2w-vs-2018-event-hextech-loot-math) [Vs 2018 Event - Trivia](https://boards.euw.leagueoflegends.com/en/c/champions-gameplay-en/EER2NmnH-vs-2018-event-trivia) Shameless plug aside, let's continue. This time around I want to adress a topic that was brought up in one of those discussions. I'm talking specifically about this: > Second : It does NOT pay off. > > Why?Simply because you are better off spending even up to 50$ for 2 skins u want for your faw champions than spending 50$ and getting random shit emotes,wards or skins for champions you don't even like. > ... > no dude even if you are a collector it's not worth it because if you are: you already have enouth skins or rather: TOO MUCH skin to make it viable, if you are a collector YOU TOO are searching for just the new one coming up with this patch... Who said that is irrelevant, so don't go around witch hunting those players. What I'm here to discuss is **why** those assessments are wrong. I'll divide this into 6 sections: Introduction, Method 1, Method 2, Method 3, Veteran Collector and Closing Notes. This time I don't have a TL;DR. {{sticker:zombie-nunu-bummed}} *** *** #Section 0 - Introduction Bad choice for a title. Oh well... I just want to establish some "rules": - Assume everything I show is "on average" and "rounded down", unless I say otherwise. - This discussion is aimed specifically at Collectors aka those with the money to... well... collect skins in this game. - Whenever you reroll 3 skin shards you **always** get a permanent skin you don't already own (except when you have all skins). Limited skins excluded. - I'm aware of the daily limit on purchasable items, but I don't what that limit is. These methods, or similar ones, will work for any event, unless Riot overhauls the entire thing (don't do it Rito) - All my numbers are theoretical, but they're based on the loot tables Riot provides. Also, being theoretical doesn't mean they are wrong. Some deviation may occur, but in the general sense my conclusion is mostly accurate. - Finally, I'm always considering the worst case to prove my point. Keep that in mind when you see the conclusions. With that out of the way, sit back, relax and eat some popcorn. {{sticker:slayer-pantheon-popcorn}} *** *** #Section 1 - Fresh Account | Method 1 - Orbs and Rerolls This one is pretty straightforward. Suppose we have a fresh account and thus no skins whatsoever. To adquire every purchasable skin in the game - including Special Events and Legacy skins - we'd need to spend a total of 802730 RP. This isn't factoring in weekly and other events discounts. Raw number is that one. The total number of purchasable skins is 813. In this event we can buy Wolf or Lion Orbs for 250 RP. Each has 1 **guaranteed** skin shard and 8 tokens. Every 10 of them we can craft an extra Orb. In other words, every shard costs 228 RP (rouded up). Pretty straight forward math. Reroll 3 shards and get 1 permanent skin, so we'd need 2439 skin shards; **at most 556320 RP** (buying in stacks of 10). Right off the bat, **the worst deal is still cheaper** than buying each skin individually. I could call it quits here, but... Trust me when I say: it gets better. *** *** #Section 2 - Fresh Account | Method 2 - Bundles and Rerolls Let's sweeten the deal. We can also buy a specific bundle for 5000 RP - "Buy 20". This bundle includes: 20 Orbs, 1 Vs Bag and 176 tokens. With the tokens we can craft 2 extra Orbs and have a few tokens left over (16). The Bag comes with 5 **guaranteed** skin shards. In total, each bundle gives us 27 **guaranteed** skin shards. If considered in stacks of 5 bundles, it'd be 136 skin shards instead. ##We'd need to buy 90 bundles for a total of 2448 skin shards; 9 left over. **It'd cost 450000 RP.** Look, the number went down from 556320 RP! Now it costs almost half the price of buying each individual skin. You already know the deal. Let's not stop here. *** *** #Section 3 - Fresh Account | Method 3 - The Grand Scheme This one brings a bunch of information together and is quite long. This is the best method of the bunch, but more complex too. I'll try to break it down as much as possible. First know that Wolf Orbs are better than Lion Orbs. While Lion Orbs give more OE on average, we want more shards to reroll because we'll have enough OE from disenchants. Second, we are interested in maximizing our Orange Essence (OE) value. For that we need to "cheat" the system. Basically, I'm saying **you don't need to reroll all skin shards**. Actually, rerolling is just part of the process. ######We aren't cheating anything, but using the tools to our advatange. Very simple rules/steps: 0. Golden rule - **Don't Reroll** skin shards worth 1350 or more. This isn't really a rule, more like a warning. We have about 29% chance of rolling one 1350+ RP permanent skin, so it isn't worth the gamble. 1. **Disenchant** every shard worth 1350 or more. The reason is simple, we want to **craft** the least expensive skins. For example, x1 1350 skin shard gives enough essence to craft x1 520 skin. 2. **Craft** every skin worth 750 RP or less. The step above should have given you the hint. The reason for that is to limit our reroll pool as much as possible. 3. **Disenchant** 975 RP skins, voiding rule 2, if we don't have enough essence to craft the skins mentioned in step 3. 4. **Craft** 975 RP skins to deplete the remaining OE. The objective here is to have that number (OE) go as close to zero as possible. 5. If we're left with **285 or more OE**, go ahead and disenchant enough 975 RP shards to craft **1 and only 1** 975 RP skin. **Never** disenchant more than x2 975 RP skins. If you follow this rule to heart, that will never happen. 6. **Reroll** everything left. *** This is the point where I should make a joke. Comic relief they call it. I'm not good with jokes, so have a clown puppy instead. https://i.imgur.com/4g6zTrz.png Moving on. The method above is all fine and dandy, but **how many bundles do we need to buy exactly**? Glad you asked. First we need to know how much OE we need in total. 750 RP or less skin shards require a little less than 93890 OE (I don't know the upgrade values for 500, 460 and 390). Because I'm feeling generous, let's round it up to 93900 OE. If we had exactly one of each shard, with every 1350 RP or more we'd have 65496 OE for crafting. That isn't enough to craft them all, but at least now we have a starting point. As I said in the beginning, there are 813 avaiable skins; x294 of those are 750 RP or less; x285 are 975 RP. Let's double the initial number. Instead of 813 we have 1626 shards. Assuming equal distribution, we'd have **at least** 130992 OE for crafting. That's enough to craft every 750 RP or lower with **at least** 37102 OE left over. Assuming we're lucky enough to get two of each shard: - 37102 OE - x294 750 RP or less to reroll - x285 975 RP skins to craft - x285 975 RP skins to reroll (or disenchant a maximum of 2) To craft those x285 we'd need 192375 OE. We're missing quite a lot. Disenchants and rerolls don't solve this problem, so we need to go higher... much higher... or do we? *** This is the part where I throw a wrench at the machine. It's about to get even more complicated. Wolf Orb gives more than just 1 skin shard. They may also contain Vs Bags and extra skin shards. Look back at Method 2. We are going to buy bundles - "Buy 20 Wolf Orbs" - in groups of 5. I'll start at 60 bundles for a total of: - 1200 Wolf Orbs - 60 Vs bags - Enough tokens to craft more 132 Wolf Orbs Let me give you the answer right now. Short answer: **Those 60 bundles are almost enough to unlock everything.** Long answer... *** The average skin is worth 197,8474 OE. 1332 Wolf Orbs (1200 + 132): - 1332 skin shards - 46 Vs Bags (3.5%) - 166 extra skin shards (12.5%) In total we have: - 1498 skin shards from Orbs - 530 skin shards from Bags (60 + 46) If you've been paying attention, we now have 2028 skin shards to work it. I started with 813, went up to 1626 and now here we are. Here's the breakdown: - x10 Ultimates - x98 Legendaries - x478 Epics - x717 975 RP - x725 of everything else Some of those Ultimates will be unlocked automatically. There are only 5 ultimates, so the chances of not getting all of them is slim, but can happen. However, we're not interested in that because we'll disenchant them anyway. Let's say you're very unlucky and only get 2 of them: Gun Goddess Miss Fortune, Pulsefire Ezreal and 8 duplicates of Ezreal. If that happens, consider visting a witch to remove the curse. We'd disenchant every Epic and above, for a grand total of 169932 OE. Now let's get down to crafting. We're left with 76042 OE after crafting all 750 RP or lower (2.4 duplicates of each skin). Deplete OE by crafting 975 RP skins (2.5 duplicates of each skin). Should be enough for x112 975 RP skins and 442 OE left over. Disenchant x2 975 RP shards to craft another 975 RP skin and we're left with 157 OE. Time for...Rerolls! We have 1033 shards to reroll (431 + 602). That's enough for 344 permanent skins. The question now is, how many skins are we missing? We already have all 750 RP and below + x112 975 RP skins, so we are missing: - x173 975 RP - x190 1350 RP - x39 1820 RP - x3 3250 RP - Total 405 skins. We are missing 61 skins. We don't need to buy much now. To meet those 61 skins we need 183 shards. 6 bundles should be enough. ######120 orbs, 13 extra Orbs from tokens and 6 bags; 133 shards from Wolf Orbs, 30 shards from Bags, 16 extra shards (12.5%) and 20 extra shards from 4 extra bags (3.5%) ##In the end, we are looking at anywhere from 60 to 66 bundles of "Buy 20 Wolf Orbs". Grand total 315000 RP. Maybe you don't remember, but we started at 802730 RP by buying every individual skin and ended up at 39% of that price. Isn't this amazing? We can adquire every skin at a 61% discount (more or less). You might be wondering: what about Hextech Skins? 60 bundles should have at least 70 gemstones. You do the math for that one :) ######Let me remind you that there's also a chance of getting some skins in the Orbs, but you'd be lucky to get even one. *** *** #Section 4 - Veteran Collector Don't worry, this one is much shorter. Those methods also works for veterans. I'm defining "veteran collector" as those missing just a few dozens of skins. A "Buy 20 Wolf Orbs" bundle gives 29 shards to work it. That's 9 permanent skins for 5000 RP. In other words, if you are missing skins worth 750 RP or more, then this bundle is for you. Maybe you are missing less than 9 skins. Don't worry, we can work with that too: - x3 "Buy One" for 250 RP - 1 permanent skin; 750 RP - "Buy 10" bundle for 2500 RP - 4 permanent skins; 625 RP each ##Essentially, as long as you're missing skins worth more than 750, those methods will work thus the event itself is a good investment. *** *** #Section 5 - Closing Notes This was extenuating... {{sticker:sg-zephyr}} If you managed to read all that and not fall asleep... congratulations! You're just like me and have nothing else better to do. {{sticker:sg-miss-fortune}} Jokes aside, I hope this gives some enlightenment to those of you that claim this to be a bad investment. Remember, this discussion is aimed **specifically** at collectors, not general public. For the general public you have the other discussion mentioned in the beginning. It doesn't hurt to repeat: **I'm not telling you to buy anything. If you want to buy any of it and have the money to, then go ahead!** Your money is well invested and you're supporting Riot by doing so. If you aren't sure about something, just ask! See y'all on the Rift! {{sticker:sg-kiko}}
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