So on the Dive directly after the draw show Jatt said it's a 75% chance EDG goes in Group C because they can only be in A or C and if they don't get drawn first (which is a 25% chance) they'd have to go to C.
That's wrong I just realized because the same thing goes for G2. They can only be in A or C too. So if let's say C9 gets drawn first then C9 does not go into A but into B instead. Then if EDG gets drawn second they'll get placed into A.
In fact the groups are pretty much decided under the assumption EDG, C9 and G2 all qualify from Play-Ins:
EDG and G2 can only go into A or C (B is blocked by RNG/VIT and D by IG/FNC).
C9 can't go into D because of 100T so they have to be in B (as A and C are both blocked by EDG and G2)
The 4th team (G-Rex, Gambit or whoever the hell upsets them) has to go in D then.
Whoever gets drawn first out of EDG and G2 will go in A, the other one in C. And that's a 50:50 chance for each to land in A.
No offense against Jatt, he probably did that in his head without computer assistance, therefore he didn't see all that (me neither, I just did 4 days later).
What I'm asking myself is why Riot still doesn't use computer help to calculate probabilities and stuff. At MSI they had the error with KZ allegedly not yet qualified for semis when they already were, that was calculated by some dude in his brain aswell.
Millions of dollars equipment, just saying.